National Weather Service Forecast for: Lohrville IA Issued by: National Weather Service Des Moines, IA

Updated: 9:55 pm CST Feb 22, 2012

Overnight Rain/Snow Likely Thursday Rain/Snow Thursday Night Chance Snow Friday Chance Snow Friday Night Blustery Saturday Sunny Saturday Night Breezy Sunday Slight Chc Rain Sunday Night Blustery Lo 31 °F Hi 38 °F Lo 23 °F Hi 32 °F Lo 18 °F Hi 35 °F Lo 26 °F Hi 47 °F Lo 20 °F

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Lohrville IA.

Zoom:      Animated: OFF   Advisories: OFF   Track: OFF   Lightning: OFF • Lohrville

Additional Weather Maps    Fronts    Jet Stream    Vis Sat    IR Sat    Wind    Temperatures    Humidity    Dew Point    Heat Index    Wind Chill    Snow Depth    Visibility    Air Quality    UV    Flu

Radar and map images courtesy of Weather Underground. Thanks to Tom at Carter Lake, Jim at Juneau County Weather and Ken at Saratoga-Weather for the display script for this page.

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... .LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ACCORDINGLY THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...NOW APPEARING TO EXTEND FROM WESSINGTON SPRINGS TO SIOUX FALLS...TO SPENCER IOWA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ACCORDINGLY THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...NOW APPEARING TO EXTEND FROM WESSINGTON SPRINGS TO SIOUX FALLS...TO SPENCER IOWA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WINDS...WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A GENERAL 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LINCOLN...SEWARD AND COLUMBUS AREAS.

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... .LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... .LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... .LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... .LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... .LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA

...WINTER WEATHER ON THE WAY... .A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY... .LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR NORTH TO HIGHWAY 20. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF 8 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS IF THUNDERSNOWS DEVELOP. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... .THE WINTER STORM IS TAKING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA. WITH THIS TRACK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS... AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...THE WINTER STORM WATCH

000
FXUS63 KDMX 230446 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1045 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR FURTHER SOUTH TREND IN THE
NAM/SREF/RUC/HRRR MODELS ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 12Z EC/GEM. THESE LATEST RUNS BRING THE SURFACE LOW FROM
SIOUX CITY TO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE. SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. ALSO VERY WEAK STABILITY...AND POTENTIAL
FOR BANDED SNOW/EVEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSNOW AS WELL ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE LOW TRACK. ALSO TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
ZONE...THUS EXPECT SOME HIGHER SNOW RATES AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THEREFORE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN THE
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE...AND SNOW RATIOS IN THE
TEENS TO 1 HAVE UPPED SNOW TOTALS TO THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODELS TRYING TO OUTPUT
12 TO 15 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BANDED SNOW AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS ONCE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS PICKING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THIS FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM.  RECENT INDICATION
ARE THAT THE MORE SOUTHERN EURO/GEM MAY END UP MORE IN LINE WITH
REALITY GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE OTHER MODELS IN THAT DIRECTION.  18Z
NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND SLOWER THAN ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME WHOLESALE CHANGES MAY
BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT TO THE FORECAST.  INITIALLY...
WILL SEE A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING.  DEEPER SATURATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIFT
INTENSIFIES WITH STRONGEST ISENTROPIC FORCING MOVING ACRS THE CWA.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACRS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
IA OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  SOUNDINGS ARE ALL
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION.  FARTHER NORTH...INCREASING MID LEVEL FORCING AND
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATIONS AND EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE NECESSARY
LIFT FOR EXPANDING PCPN...ESPECIALLY FROM 09-12Z IN OUR NORTHWEST.
HAVE GONE WITH AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT AS FORCING INCREASES
ALONG WITH PCPN RATES...SOUNDINGS COLLAPSE TO FREEZING AND PCPN
SHOULD SWITCH TO ALL SNOW.  AGAIN...MAIN CONCERN ACRS THE NORTH IS
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS WITH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SCENARIOS.  THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE AS CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATIONS REMAINS VERY FLUID.


.LONG TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRIP OF VORTICITY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A
SMALL CONGEALED AREA OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE INTERACTIONS OF THESE FEATURES WILL PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE TANGIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER STRONG WINTER
STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS TRACK
IS FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF CENTRAL IOWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BAND FROM CENTRAL MN THROUGH NORTHERN WI.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN H250 JET MAX WITH +150KT WINDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THIS JET
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PHASE WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPPING DOWN FROM ALBERTA. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SETS
UP...WHICH IN TURN WILL DECIDE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH WILL DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL OCCURS.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA.  CURRENT THINKING IS FOR HEAVIEST SNOW TO OCCUR FROM
NORTHWEST IOWA...THROUGH EAST CENTRAL IOWA...OR ALONG A LING FROM
SIOUX CITY THROUGH DAVENPORT. HOWEVER...AS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
INDICATED...LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTERN
SHIFT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SO EXPECT EXACT TOTALS TO
CHANGE FROM WHAT THEY CURRENTLY ARE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD...WE WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE
ROLLS...WHICH COULD TRANSPIRE INTO SNOW SQUALLS WITH ZERO VISIBILITY
AT TIMES. THIS THREAT IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE
THE HEAVY SNOW DOES INDEED FALL TOMORROW. DID NOT FEEL ANY
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT...BUT A SHORT-FUSED BLIZZARD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE HIGH MAINTENANCE WEATHER
SYSTEM ON HAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED GRIDS. A POWERFUL WINTER STORM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT IOWA
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
FALL AS RAIN. THIS COULD TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AS THE COLD AIR
GETS WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THIS STORM...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL DRY US
OUT...AND BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION...23/00Z
WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE INITIAL 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA AT KDSM AND KOTM WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
RASN INITIALLY...THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AT KMCW...KALO...AND KFOD. EXPECT IFR VSBYS AND
CIGS...WITH LIFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...COGIL
LONG TERM...BEITLICH
AVIATION...BEERENDS
UPDATE...BEERENDS

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion